感谢：盖洛普公司Brandon Rigoni等分享，科技公司对优秀人才的争夺，让我们这些在人才聘用领域从业者们有了更大的发展空间。Brandon Rigoni运用科学的数据分析方法，结合找人、识人、用人等全流程思维来提升组织的人才聘用决策。
Brandon Rigoni，盖洛普人才发展副主任，08-13年就读于内布拉斯加大学林肯分校，哲学博士，主修管理学。
说明：建议大家还是读一读他的英文版本更好些，我的翻译实在是太烂了。石员：QQ554299440，webchat:shicaiyuan123.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS（文章亮点）
· More companies are using predictive analytics for hiring（越来越多的公司开始在人才聘用中使用大数据分析与预测）
· Without strong recruiting, candidate pools may be lesstalented（如果没有做好人才招募工作即指人才寻访环节，那么候选人群中就可能没有优秀的人才，所以人才渠道拓展与运维、雇主品牌建设将会越来越重要，特别对消费品企业以及用户类互联网产品企业）
· An effective recruiting strategy is data-driven with clear expectations（在招募工作中使用大数据驱动，以及确立清晰的绩效期望可以有效提升招聘效果）
The big data movement continues to gain momentum, and leadersare increasingly using a data-driven approach to make personnel selectiondecisions.
大数据正在各个领域发展的如火如荼，以致于越来越多的企业领导者们在人才选拔与聘用决策领域里面也开始使用相关的数据分析与预测方法。
Moneyball, the story of the Oakland Athletics,provides a famous example of the power of using predictive analytics for player selection. General Manager Billy Beane applied rigorous statistical analysis to player evaluations, uncovering rare and unusual talent often overlooked by traditional scouting methods. By using data-driven strategies to find talent,Beane and other managers have found valuable players missed by scouts who use subjective observations or "gut feelings."
点球成金就是讲一个很穷的俱乐部——奥克兰运动家队在运用大数据分析与预测来选拔优秀的球员的一部电影。比利·比恩严格的运用数据统计分析来评估球员，从而发现了一些传统的球探（他们靠主管和直觉）错过的一些罕见的不同寻常的优秀球员。
在棒球界有个通病，那里的人们不去了解真正发生的事，这些经营大联盟的球队头头错误的判断自己的球员、错误管理自己的球队，他们脑子里只关注怎么买球员，而不是买到胜利，这好像企业经营领域脱离用户谈产品、脱离业务与团队谈人才一样。
点球成金里面的彼得。布兰德毕业于耶鲁大学经济学专业，他抛弃了传统棒球界球探选拔球员时关注的年龄、外貌、性格等偏见，直接抓取棒球竞技成功的一些关键指标与球员过去的业绩数据如上垒率，类似于用高德拉特的TOC理论，重点解决了竞技成败的瓶颈。当然这一数据模型的建立与分析是极其复杂的。
And the approach works. The Athletics have beenconsistently competitive against teams with much higher payrolls -- and have made the postseason eight times since 2000.
靠这样的方法选用球员，比利·比恩率队和那些高额薪金组成的球队对抗，从2000年开始一共打了8次季后赛（最贵的并不是最好的，运用科学的方法来选人、用人，也可以取得卓越的绩效）。在奥克兰运动家球队没有取得20连胜之前，棒球界的那帮传统的人一直认为：没有人能重新定义棒球，这好比在今天的互联网时代，没有人能重新定义公司、重新定义团队与人才一样，但是谷歌却做到了。
Business leaders are increasingly taking a data-driven,Moneyball approach to identifying talent and are bringing an increased focus onscientific interviewing and assessments to their talent acquisition efforts.And talented workers are well worth the effort it takes to hire them. Gallup meta-analysis results suggest that when companies select the top 20% most-talented candidates for a role, they frequently realize a 10%increase in productivity, a 20% increase in sales, a 30% increase inprofitability, a 10% decrease in turnover and a 25% decrease in unscheduled absences.
越来越多的企业领导在人才面试与评价工作中开始重视数据分析与预测，他们知道找到并雇佣那些优秀的人才是非常值得他们努力的事情。
盖洛普发现，如果聘用那些优秀人才的前20%，那么劳动效率会提升10%、销售额增加20%、利润增加30%，或营收下降减少10%、缺勤率会下降25%。
But lackluster recruiting -- a recurring problem for some organizations -- may be undermining even the most dvanced scientific interviews. When state-of-the-art predictive analytic models are used correctly, they can identify potential. But they can never make candidates more talented.
但是，如果没有做好招募环节工作（这是很多公司反复出现的问题），就可能毁掉先进的科学面试方法的效果（指在面试中正确地运用的数据分析模型）。因为，您能识别高潜质人才，但您不能让这群平庸的候选人变得更优秀。
More Emphasis Needed on the Recruiting Phase
人才招募环节在整个人才聘用决策中需要更多的关注
For leaders, this means that a lack of focus on the recruiting phase can produce a less-talented candidate pool. Efforts to hire employees with the talents to succeed in a rolemust start long before interviewing begins, as companies use recruiting effortsto target the right applicants.
在面试之前，就需要通过有效的招募来确保有足够合适的候选人群进入评价范围。
Gallup has studied many world-class businesses and has come to understand how the very best develop their recruitment strategies. Here are two practices that some of the best companies use：
盖洛普在研究很多世界级企业发现了有两点做的很不错：
They use data and analytics for recruiting, not just when interviewing.That's right: Big data is forrecruiting, too.
Targeted, data-driven recruiting, complemented by scientific interviews, is vital to a hiring strategy that positions companies for long-term success.
把数据分析预测用到招募环节，事实上这是在招募之前找到那些决定其在公司业绩表现优秀的特点是成功的关键（非岗位胜任力模型，这是一种从组织、团队、岗位更系统的角度去全面考量人才在组织内部的绩优表现的一些KSF）。
For example, Gallup discovered that a group of military trainees in a particular unit were 1.5 times more likely to complete a rigorous training program if they had a friend or family member who had served in the unit. Along with many other traits that are linked to success, this practical,actionable finding can inform recruiters' efforts to find candidates who are most likely to succeed in training. Identifying characteristics like this can help recruiters focus their attention and know which recruiting investments might yield the greatest results.
比如，盖洛普发现一些军事培训者如果他有朋友或家庭成员在同一单位服务，那么他们完成培训项目的概率是一般培训者的1.5倍（类似于Q12第10个问题，我在工作单位有一个最要好的朋友）。
随着更多的高绩效人才的特点被发现，招募工作人员就知道要找什么特点的人，把工作重心放在哪里了。（内推为什么会成为主要人才招募渠道也有数据证明了）
Ultimately, recruiting is a numbers game. Candidates possess identifiable characteristics that predict successful performance, which companies can hone in on early in the recruiting process -- long before anyone has been interviewed -- to increase efficiency. Recruiting people with these characteristics increases the likelihood of hiring employees who will thrive in a role.
最后，招募工作就是数字游戏了，在面试之前找到那些拥有高绩效特征越多的人，人才聘用的效果就会越来越好。这个说的很轻松，做起来却是很艰难。但可以先对公司内部绩效优秀的人才进行数据分析、建模，然后再延伸到外部人才。组织内部人才数据埋点如何实现，这是个技术难题，但关键行为事件数据的记录、分析、建模应该是个方向。
Establish clear expectations.
给出明确的绩效期望
Leaders need to establish expectations for recruitersthat are clear, consistent and aligned with a recruiting strategy that will drive business outcomes. Setting crystal-clear role expectations for employees at all levels is one of the most important elements of creating an engaged and productive workforce.Gallup finds that when employees strongly agree that their manager helps them set performance goals, they are more than 8.5 times more likely to be engaged in their work compared with those who strongly disagree with this statement.
盖洛普发现，当员工强烈认同他们的经理帮助他们设定的绩效目标，他们的工作业绩会是反对经理设定目标的员工的8.5倍。
Setting the right expectations for recruiters not only encourages employee engagement, it also increases recruiters' effectiveness. For example, if a company rewards recruiters for filling roles quickly rather than for finding applicants with the right talents for successin a role, that company risks recruiting and hiring less-talented employees.With a workforce of mediocre players, performance suffers and companies may need to rehire more frequently -- an expensive problem, considering that some estimates for replacing mid-level workers are 1.5 times the employee's salary or more.
同样的，给招募人员设定正确的绩效期望也可以快速提升他们的人才招聘效果。为职位找到优秀的人才才是正确的招募人员的绩效考核指标。如果只关注招募数量和交期，那么只会找到平庸的人才，而更换掉这些平庸人才的代价将会增加额外的1.5倍的薪资费用。
Recruiter expectations should balance speed and quality, and companies should structure incentives accordingly. If leaders only emphasize quantity of candidates or the time frame, they miss the mark; companies are best off when they equip recruiters to hire the right candidates the first time.
招募人员要平衡招聘工作的速度和质量。当招聘人员从一开始就确保找到合适的优秀人才，那么这个公司就会成为最好的公司。
There is no question that top talent wins. But the process of finding the right talent starts long before interviews begin. It begins with recruiting the right people -- a process that requires knowing what to look for and setting the right recruiter expectations. At the end of the day, the most successful companies in the world -- whether professional athletics or big business -- are the best at recruiting.
毫无疑问，雇佣顶级人才的企业才会走向成功。但这始于企业对招募人员拥有正确的期望、以及招募人员知道那些高绩效人才的各种特点。在今天的人才争夺战中，那些最优秀的公司都是在人才招聘中做的最好的。
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2016-03-07 10:43:42 
